Take your pick: If Roberto Duran faced Manny Pacquiao, who would win?

May 19, 2024

Put the kids to bed early, tell your pacifist cousin to shelter in place and let that komodo dragon deep inside your lizard brain slither out into the sunshine: Today, we’re talking mythical matchups, and this one features two of the most dynamic and bloodthirsty offensive fighters in modern boxing history, Roberto Duran and Manny Pacquiao.

Before breaking down the particulars, let’s establish ground rules: To arrive at an overall prediction of who would win Duran-Pacquiao, we’ll consult three expert voices: Steve Farhood, Showtime boxing analyst; Gary Andrew Poole, author of the biography “PacMan;” and Ed Tolentino, Philippine boxing columnist and ringside analyst for ABS-CBN television. The goal of this thought experiment is to project how Duran-Pacquiao would unfold at lightweight and welterweight, assuming that both fighters are in peak form. So Manny cannot win because Duran took him lightly or gained too much weight between training camps.

“We’re talking about each guy at his best,” Farhood explained. “Manny, in his own way, was far more consistent. Duran was not always in the best physical shape, and Manny has never had that problem. The other thing is that Duran came up with the occasional lemon — losing to Kirkland Lang, being totally useless against (Wilfred) Benitez, who was a great fighter, but still, Duran was useless.”

Finally, we’ll spotlight four key factors — Duran’s in-fighting, Pacquiao’s explosive athleticism, Duran’s vicious in-ring demeanor, and Pacquiao’s southpaw stance — that might have given one fighter a decisive edge over the other.

Now, we might as well go ahead and say it: Even among legends, there are levels to this game. Historically speaking, “Manos de Piedra” is firmly ensconced in the sport’s Mount Olympus — pugilism’s God of War, so to speak, while Pacquiao walks with the demigods.

As Farhood reminds us: “Duran at his best was a fighting machine, and for me or anyone else, it’s boxing blasphemy to suggest that anybody could fight him at 135 and beat him. You could say that somebody could beat Ali, you can say somebody could beat Joe Louis, you can even say somebody could beat Ray Robinson — who did lose a few times at middleweight — but to say that someone could beat Duran at 135, you better be ready to put up your dukes and defend that.”

That said, styles make fights, and although it may be blasphemous to suggest Duran could be beaten at lightweight, there’s no crime in pondering the ways Pacquiao could have pushed him like no other opponent, or may even have a chance to win at 147 pounds. If contemporary lightweight rivals like Ken Buchanan, Esteban de Jesus (who beat Duran in a non-title fight before losing a rematch and rubber match for the belt) and Ray Lampkin managed to compete with Duran on near-even terms for stretches of their fights, then it’s fair to wonder how Pacquiao would have fared.

Finally, before we focus on the attributes that would have differentiated Duran and Pacquiao in a fight, it’s worth pointing out the many ways in which their careers have mirrored one another. Both began their professional careers as teenagers, and both inspired mythologies about the hardships they endured in childhood as well as the origins of their punching power. Duran hailed from the El Chorrillo slum of Panama City, while a young Pacquiao sold donuts on the streets of General Santos City before stowing away on a ship to Manila to try his luck as a professional boxer. According to legend, Duran inherited his strength — powerful enough to knock out a horse — from a grandfather who could crack coconuts with his fists; meanwhile, in the Philippines, mothers and aunties have been known to coax kids into eating “tutong” — the crunchy, burnt rice at the bottom of a pot — by telling them it was the source of Pacquiao’s might.

Duran and Pacquiao both won titles in several divisions and carried their power and their punch resistance as they rose in weight. They both experienced rare longevity, with Duran fighting in four separate decades and Pacquiao one expected bout away from matching that feat.

Finally, and perhaps most of all, Duran and Pacquiao both seemed most comfortable — happier, almost, than anywhere else — while exchanging blows in a boxing ring. They expressed it differently: Duran’s scowl as opposed to Pacquiao’s ecstatic grin. But it’s hard to escape the sense that both were born fighters who, despite their dalliances in bars and basketball courts and politics, felt more fulfilled between the ropes than anywhere else.

If they had actually faced each other in their primes, it’s difficult to envision Duran-Pacquiao becoming anything other than a fight for the ages. Let’s take a deeper look at the greatest fight we’ll never get a chance to see.

Inside fighting

It’s hard to name a more brutal, punishing or skilled in-fighter than Duran. The Panamanian great never looked more unbeatable than when bombing overhand rights against opponents like Buchanan and Carlos Palomino, then falling into clinches when he missed and engaging in head-to-neck one-handed mauling.

If Duran ever managed to pin Pacquiao down, he’d overwhelm him. But Pacquiao possesses some of the swiftest and most active feet boxing has ever seen, and no opponent has ever been able to get inside on him for prolonged stretches of time. Ricky Hatton, Antonio Margarito and Brandon Rios may not have been Duran’s equal in close quarters, but they were among the most adept inside fighters of their generation, and none of them came close to containing Pacquiao’s movement. Perhaps comparing them to Duran is like comparing NBA shooting guards like Jeff Hornacek and Mitch Richmond to Michael Jordan, but Pacquiao has proved on several occasions that he is too fast and too unpredictable to be cornered, and he’d be as likely as anyone to keep Duran at distance.

Duran’s mean streak and Pacquiao’s good-heartedness

Has there ever been a boxer quite as vicious as Roberto Duran? We’re talking about the boxer who said, “Next time I send him to the morgue” after a blood-curdling 14th-round knockout of Ray Lampkin. The fighter whose provocations lured Sugar Ray Leonard into a toe-to-toe brawl in their first bout. In clinches, Duran delighted in pushing the Queensberry Rules to their limits, striking opponents with all the legal and illegal blows that referees would allow.

Could Pacquiao, one of the happiest warriors boxing has ever seen, contend with Duran’s rule-bending?

“I don’t think Manny can be intimidated,” Farhood said. “I don’t think that would be effective at all.”

Even so, there’s little doubt that Duran would pass up any opportunity he sensed to rough up Pacquiao, who, throughout his career, has been more likely to appeal to the referee for a clean break before seeking his version of revenge.

“He can’t handle your speed, son”

So goes Freddie Roach’s famous between-rounds quote to Pacquiao during the Filipino icon’s 2008 dismantling of Oscar De La Hoya. Those same words have been just as true for so many of Pacquiao’s opponents over the years, including hall-of-famers like Marco Antonio Barrera, Erik Morales and Miguel Cotto.

Duran was not slow. His foot and upper body movement come closer to matching Pacquiao’s frenetic activity than almost any other fighter. But athletically, Pacquiao remains in another stratosphere. Think back to 2003, when a still-limited Pacquiao faced a more seasoned and skilled Barrera, and Manny overwhelmed the Mexican great with little more than his nuclear lead left hand.

Throughout Pacquiao’s extended prime, only Juan Manuel Marquez and Floyd Mayweather have been able to contend with Pacquiao’s foot and hand speed. A historically great fighter like Duran deserves the benefit of the doubt when it comes to figuring out Pacquiao’s timing, but at the very least, Duran would have needed a few rounds to adjust to Pacquiao’s explosiveness, and there’s a chance that Pacquiao would have been too quick for the Panamanian.

Duran and southpaws

Farhood pointed out that of Duran’s 22 championship fights, only two came against southpaws. Of course, one of those lefties was Marvin Hagler, and although Duran fell short in that bout, his ability to go 14 rounds on even terms with one of the best middleweights ever — before Hagler dominated the fifteenth — remains a testament to Duran’s greatness.

Even so, Duran’s relative lack of experience against left-handed fighters at the highest level suggests that Pacquiao would force Duran to adapt to angles and maneuvers he rarely had to face in championship fights.

Duran-Pacquiao at lightweight

Duran was, according to many experts, the greatest 135-pound champion of all time. Better than Pernell Whitaker, better than Benny Leonard and Joe Gans, better than anyone.

“It’s not so much the quality of opposition,” Farhood said. “You can make the argument that the quality of opposition for Manny — even at welterweight, which I don’t think is his best weight — is better than for Duran at lightweight. But it’s the totality of Duran’s ability and the result of his fights. He stopped almost everybody. At that weight and at that time, he was a force that we hadn’t seen for a long time.”

There’s little surprise, then, that our experts weren’t willing to give Pacquiao the nod at 135.

“At lightweight or 135 pounds, there is no doubt that Duran would have beaten Pacquiao by decision or late-round technical knockout,” Tolentino said. “Duran was an absolute beast at lightweight and nobody — not even a lightweight Pacquiao — could beat him in this weight class. The lightweight Duran was close to unbeatable, and while Pacquiao had the faster hands, it would not have been enough to repel the ferocious Duran.”

“First of all, Duran wasn’t slow,” Poole said. “He had very good feet, especially at lighter weights. Secondly, effective power has a way of neutralizing speed. I think Duran’s power would tip it his way. Pacquiao had incredible power built off of his speed and insane punching angles, but Duran’s power was more explosive and would neutralize the Pacman. … Pacquiao would try and box Duran, but I think Duran would wear him down. At lightweight, I think Pacquiao’s speed would be negated enough that power would be a more important factor.”

It’s hard to disagree, given that Pacquiao only had one fight at lightweight compared to Duran’s impressive title reign at 135 pounds. But there’s reason to believe that a Duran-Pacquiao bout for the lightweight title would be closer than their resumes suggest. Pacquiao’s only fight at the weight may have come against the “pedestrian David Diaz,” in Tolentino’s words, but even while Pacquiao stepped up to a slew of catchweights and official weight limits between 140 and 150 pounds to notch signature wins against De La Hoya, Hatton, Cotto and Margarito, a lingering sense remained that Pacquiao’s speed and power would have been most devastating at a lower weight like 135.

He didn’t compete in the division long enough to prove it, but Pacquiao may have achieved his absolute peak at lightweight. If so, that would have made him a formidable opponent for Duran, the greatest lightweight ever, according to BoxingScene’s Cliff Rold.

Duran-Pacquiao at welterweight

“Pacquiao’s best chance against Duran would come at 147 pounds,” Tolentino said.

That’s a heavy assertion, given that Duran’s 1980 decision over Sugar Ray Leonard at welterweight is often cited as the single greatest win in boxing history.

“It was at welterweight where Duran’s conditioning problems became persistent,” Tolentino added. “He was clearly not in condition and outclassed by Leonard in their rematch. On the other hand, Pacquiao was a better, if not complete, fighter at welterweight, offering good lateral movements and a two-fisted attack. Pacquiao would have beaten Duran at welterweight, although it would have been only on points and after a helluva effort.”

“How could a naturally smaller guy like Pacquiao beat the great Roberto Duran at a higher weight class?” said Poole. “Pacquiao was very good at bringing his speed with him as he climbed to higher weights. I don’t think Duran would be able to keep up with Pacquiao’s speed and relentless pressure — the extra pounds would slow Duran just enough. Pacquiao would be in and out with those five-punch combinations and he would wear down and frustrate him. At welter, I think the fight might play out more like Duran-Leonard 2 when Leonard dictated the fight with boxing. Pacquiao would use the same strategy for a win.”

Farhood conceded that even despite Duran’s triumph in the first Leonard fight, Pacquiao had the more impressive record at welterweight, thanks to wins over De La Hoya, Cotto, Margarito, Marquez, Shane Mosley, Timothy Bradley Jr. and Keith Thurman. When all was said and done, however, the Showtime expert couldn’t bring himself to favor Pacquiao over Duran, no matter the weight.

“I really do feel that Manny would have given Duran fits,” Farhood said. “Am I going to pick him to win? No. But for a good portion of the fight, I do think that Manny would have given him a lot of trouble because of the angles and because of Duran’s lack of experience against southpaws. Manny would maybe even be ahead after four or five rounds, and then I think Duran would come on. I don’t necessarily feel Duran would stop him, but I think he’d beat him fairly convincingly on the cards.”

The verdict: Duran over Pacquiao

There would be no shame in falling short against Duran or against Pacquiao. In this case, however, the preponderance of available evidence and expertise suggests that Duran would prevail over Pacquiao.

Duran, simply put, was a near-perfect offensive fighter and an underrated defensive boxer. In “The Tao of Roberto Duran,” a video breakdown of the Panamanian’s brilliance, analyst Lee Wylie highlights seven-and-a-half minutes’ worth of feints, upper body movement, counterpunching, shifting, slipping and rolling punches, baiting with the jab and various other attributes before arriving at Duran’s most vaunted talent, his in-fighting.

Pacquiao’s chances of defeating Duran would rest on the otherworldly speed and power he flashed in his prime against Barrera, Morales, Cotto and others. If Pacquiao’s athleticism had been enough to overwhelm those greats, then perhaps it would have tormented “Manos de Piedra” as well.

Chances are, however, that Duran would have adapted.

“He had the ability to turn off the super aggressiveness and box,” Farhood said. “He did it against de Jesus the third time, and in that sense, I could see Duran approaching Duran a little bit like Juan Manuel Marquez did — not necessarily moving too much but looking for the perfect counterpunch.”

Regardless of whoever would have been favored in Duran-Pacquiao, the bout would all but guarantee moments where both fighters were tested as they’d never been in their legendary careers. Would Pacquiao be forced to survive prolonged spells of Duran’s in-fighting? Would Duran — ever the ruthless, vicious aggressor — be forced onto the back foot by Pacquiao’s fast-twitch quickness?

And just imagine Duran and Pacquiao trading leather!

“We are talking about a certified punch-a-thon,” Tolentino said. “Toe-to-toe exchanges that will make you cringe down to your toenail. This pairing is a fight fan’s wet dream, his ‘50 Shades of Glove.’”

OK, Tolentino’s description contains a touch of hyperbole (it’s also pretty gross). In this case, however, it feels warranted: How could any fight fan think of a dream match like Duran-Pacquiao and not turn into a degenerate?

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